This article talks about how southern Yemen has now formed a "provisional government." It should of course say something closer to "Powerful people in Southern Yemen form own government in opposition to Northern Yemen." I can guarantee that the average Mohammed in the street is not involved in this at all. It does show how far the movers and shakers in the south are willing to go. The primary agitator has already been jailed for treason, he's really going out on a limb now...
People in the south have been feeling trampled on ever since the "reunification" back in 1990. There have been all sorts of demonstrations and instances of civil disobedience since then. Through all of that, the northern tribes have never seemed to take the problems very seriously. I can tell you that the people I met in the capital by and large didn't spend any time worrying about the people in the south.
Trouble is brewing. I hope that it doesn't take a civil war to sort this out, but I'm having difficulties seeing any alternative at this point. The best case scenario that I can imagine is that the government (dominated by northern tribes) manages to keep control of things in the south by force. That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario involves not only a north/south war, but a total collapse of the agreements and truces between many different tribes. Yemen could be carved up into even more insular, lawless areas. I hope that the people do not suffer too much in the years to come...
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One of the other stressors to factor in is the dip in global oil prices. Yemen's state budget relies of oil sales for 70% of its revenue. Declining oil production has been offset by rising oil prices. With prices down over 30% in October, the impact will be felt quickly.
Also the protests are a mass movement and leaders scrambled to catch up. Its the first non-elitist mass expression I've seen in a long time.
I hadn't thought of the oil prices, that is grim. Yemen gets US dollars from its oil and it uses those dollars for everything. Nobody will take the riyal... Still, Sana'a and the rest of the north gets the bulk of that money, I wonder how it'll affect the south.
There have been protests for quite a while, but I'm a little too cynical to believe that the average guy will benefit much from whatever happens. Yemen's culture revolves around centers of power. Even when nothing is going on, the guy on the street is screwed. When big things go on, I bet his situation gets worse... Don't know if there's a way to avoid that.
Isaac
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